China’s new-found willingness to integrate its national climate policies into international climate negotiations is arguably the single most momentous development in international climate politics in recent times. It removes one of the major stumbling
blocks of past climate negotiations.
There are strong reasons to believe that China will make good on its promises. China’s climate change strategy is connected to the objectives of the current economic restructuring. The link between climate change goals and China’s economic interests lends credibility to its international commitments. But will this link hold? Will the alignment of climate change objectives and economic goals survive under the new conditions of economic slowdown and corresponding political pressures?
There are three scenarios of China‘s climate policy presented in the brief:
• “Backslide”
• “Acceleration”
• “Delay”
Short-term measures threaten climate targets:
• the economic slowdown will not automatically lead to declining CO2 emissions in China. The trajectory of CO2 emissions crucially depends on how remaining growth is being generated
• as maintaining growth and preventing unemployment becomes the priority, long-term structural changes are likely to be postponed. Short-term stimulus through infrastructure and construction threatens China’s climate targets
Implications for European decision-makers:
• a full climate backslide is unlikely. But the changing economic context in China raises questions about the validity of China’s climate change commitments. The temptation to create short-term growth at the expense of long-term climate goals will rise
• under economic pressure, China’s government becomes more likely to revert on recent trends and again prioritise domestic flexibility over international commitments. Agreements need to be reached and fixed quickly before the window of opportunity closes
• EU-China mechanisms of climate change cooperation support a long-term, structural transition. But the emerging challenge is of a different nature. European actors should shift focus towards ways to confront the short-term need for growth and employment without derailing China’s climate change efforts