Climate change is expected to result in a warmer, drier climate in the Caribbean region. The altered climate is expected to have wide-reaching impacts on agriculture. This policy brief describes work carried out by the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) in partnership with the University of the West Indies (UWI), which used climate predictions and crop suitability models to assess the likely impact of climate change on crops grown in Trinidad & Tobago.
- by 2050, Trinidad & Tobago is expected to show a significant reduction in the area suitable for growing tomato. Alternative crops such as cassava, sweet potato, and yam are good diversification alternatives
- the cocoa crop is expected to be more resilient to climatic changes; nonetheless, as a high value perennial crop, precautions should be taken to ensure plantations have access to irrigation during infrequent, severe dry periods.
- by 2050, the climate suitability of all of the crops analysed is expected to increase in the upland areas and surrounding mountain ranges. As these areas are mainly forested, there is a risk of agricultural encroachment into protected forest areas
- there is great potential to reduce possible negative impacts of climatic changes through targeted policy recommendations (outlined below)
The following recommendations are outlined: promote diversification of crop species in low-lying areas; improve water supply and water use for farms in dryer areas; initiate testing of climate resilience in new crop varieties and provide this information to growers; enhance protection of forested upland areas to prevent encroachment due to changes in land suitability at lower altitudes.