The Mount Elgon region is very vulnerable to climate change and variability, with a heavy dependence on coffee production. Yields and quality of coffee crops have been declining over the last 30 years, in part owing to poor management practices and in part because of an increase in the frequency of droughts, landslides and floods. This study has reviewed the evolving situation for Arabica coffee cultivation in the Bududa district and looked at how climate variability is affecting coffee yields and livelihoods, based on the data collected in the field through interviews with key stakeholders and a literature review.
It identified seven potential adaptation approaches, and focused on the two that stakeholders considered to be most important: Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) and institutional support measures (or extension services). According to literature and the stakeholders interviewed, CSA practices are not currently adopted, in part because farmers lack the resources and technical capacities to make the necessary investments.
The study found that although quite costly, investments in CSA are likely to be justified, as probable benefits outweigh the costs, both under current conditions, and even more so when expected climate impacts are considered. The study indicates that likely investment costs are in the range of US$2.4 million in 2016, rising to US$4.9 million by 2019, over and above the current institutional support programme of Bududa’s District Local Government, which has a budget of only around US$ 214,329. The analysis shows that investment in these two complementary programmes – CSA and institutional support – would have an internal rate of return of around 36%. If combined with other adaptation approaches, such as complementary policies or providing better climate information, there is, in the view of the study team, potential to sustain coffee cultivation in Bududa, both now and under future predicted climatic conditions.
The study recommends that further research and analysis is conducted in order to identify:
- the impact of climate variability on coffee yields in the Mt Elgon region, and other coffee growing regions in Uganda
- the cost and benefits of different approaches to CSA in the coffee sector, in particular to identify ‘low regret’ options and options where there are co-benefits
- the economic viability of coffee growing under BAU and CSA in different regions in Uganda, in order to focus investment on regions where there is a stronger economic case for coffee cultivation in the long term
- barriers and enablers that effect the adoption of CSA practices by farmers, in order to identify what wrap-around support might be needed, and subsequent to this an analysis of how support may be best delivered
- the costs and benefits of alternative livelihoods in Bududa, including cultivation of other crops and non-farming activities, versus coffee cultivation
The above actions would help to inform the design of a CSA programme for coffee, including practical measures as well as institutional support, and help to identify what additional complementary strategies might be needed. Critically, the development of such a programme should also involve the private sector, and an analysis of the market and value chain for coffee, to enable improved commercialisation. Further, given the high level of investment that is potentially required, it is recommended that any CSA programme is first piloted in order to establish whether expectations around costs, benefits, and yields, etc, are borne out in reality in Uganda.