Uganda is already experiencing the impacts of climate variability and associated economic losses. Uganda’s First National Development Plan (2010–2015) recognises that climate change will affect most of its key economic sectors and that action on climate change is crucial if the country is to meet its goal to become a competitive, upper middle-income country by 2040 (Vision 2040). The Plan also recognises that, for development to be economically and socially sustainable, climate resilience must be at the heart of policies for growth and development, energy access and security, increased agricultural production, education and health.
Against this backdrop, the Government of Uganda commissioned the Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change study. Its purpose is to provide the Government with economic evidence on the current and future costs associated with climate variability and predicted climate change, and the necessary adaptation measures for different sectors at both national and local
scales. This evidence is intended to help policy-makers mainstream climate change and resilience into national and sectoral policies and develop the case for investing in adaptation.
Key message:
- development prospects will only be reached if the impacts of climate change on Uganda are mitigated
- the impacts of climate change are expected to be felt across all the sectors and local areas studied , to varying degrees
- the cost of adaptation is high: estimated at around US$406 m over the next five years (2015–2020). On an annual basis, this amounts to about 5% of net official development assistance received and 3.2% of total government revenues (excluding grants)
- the cost of inaction is 20 times greater than the cost of adaptation: inaction is estimated at between US$3.1 bn and 5.9 bn per year by 2025, which is more than 20 times the proposed adaptation budget
- the economic case for adaptation is clear: many of the adaptation measures proposed in the study are ‘no regrets’ investments, in that they are valid even in the absence of climate change
- considering the co-benefits strengthens the case for adaptation further, for example improved livelihoods, health and access to energy; these represent strong investments in the development of Uganda’s future