<p>During the summer and autumn of 2015, El Niño conditions in the east and central Pacific have strengthened, disrupting weather patterns throughout the tropics and into the mid-latitudes. For example, rainfall during this summer’s Indian monsoon was approximately 15% below normal. The continued strong El Niño conditions have the potential to trigger damaging impacts (e.g., droughts, famines, floods), particularly in less-developed tropical countries, which would require a swift and effective humanitarian response to mitigate damage to life and property (e.g., health, migration, infrastructure).</p>
<p>This analysis uses key climatic variables (temperature, soil moisture and precipitation – see section 1.1) as measures to monitor the ongoing risk of these potentially damaging impacts. Key climatic variables (temperature, soil moisture and precipitation) predict the potential near-term impacts of the current El Niño. Tables present information for the past 35 years, a detailed monthly outlook for January 2016, and longer-term seasonal forecasts until June 2016. Most models predict that El Niño conditions will continue (although weaker) during January to March 2016. This report for January 2016 assesses the threats.</p>