For the past 50 years temperatures across West Africa have been increasing, particularly in dryland areas. This warming trend is set to continue in the coming decades, with the number of very hot days each year projected to be 17-20 times greater than in preceding decades. Projections for changes in rainfall are much more uncertain, and more research needs to be undertaken to understand how rainfall may change in the future.
The challenges of meeting the increasing demands for land, food, water and forage for livestock will be made more difficult because of increasing frequency and intensity of drought and flood risks.
These climatic changes will compound the existing challenges stemming from a lack of integrated water resource planning and sustainable land management which has resulted in extensification of agriculture onto drought-prone lands, reduced access to pastoral corridors, increased encroachment of farming onto rangelands, and under-investment in dryland areas.
The way forward:
- climate change exacerbates many risks to human livelihoods and wellbeing in the dryland areas of West Africa. These include risks associated with rainfall variability, drought, flood hazards that negatively impact on resource degradation, resource conflict, food insecurity, human health, and plant and animal diseases
- in order to address these risks, climate change information needs to be better understood by decision makers and appropriately integrated into national and sectoral policies and plans. Greater integration of climate information would help to support more responsive mechanisms, prioritization of financial resources, and strengthening of institutional capacities to effectively implement adaptation frameworks
- a multi-sectoral approach to addressing climate risks is recommended. Governments are encouraged to engage across institutional levels and with the private sector to innovatively address climate risks and promote climate finance mechanisms
- better integration of adaptation planning into development priorities coupled with resources for implementing adaptation practices can help to support local communities to adapt to the current and future effects of climate change in dryland areas. The needs of the most vulnerable members of society should be identified and prioritised
Climate change will result in thresholds being reached sooner, and heat-stress related impacts on livestock, crops, buildings and infrastructure will be more severe.